The list of open positions for this week is the longest I have ever seen. I am guessing Corona Virus fears have begun to siphon away the local sub pool. In my last post I counted openings. As of tonight, I find 87 (!) possibilities listed.

Eduhonesty: I am not sure I have written such a straightforward warning piece in the past. But this count is running much too high for this time of year. I don’t know if Corona is inspiring some teachers to stay home with their fevers, teachers who might have trudged through the workday in the past. I suspect that accounts for a few of the openings for substitutes.

But here is what I see coming: in “Yes, We Have No Substitutes Today,” I wrote about the general life of a sub. Subbing tends to pay poorly, but many men and women after retirement enjoy spending days in the classroom. The ability to choose when and whether to work makes subbing perfect for a retiree.

Those retirees are mostly over sixty years of age. No doubt with some hardy exceptions, they will not be getting on cruise ships. They may be avoiding airplanes and other public transit. They will be picking public events carefully. Current CDC advice tells seniors to avoid crowds.

Lunch duty, anyone? I project a rapidly increasing sub shortage in a time when existing shortages often prove problematic. That shortage appears inevitable to me. Many subs are working for love, not money. Many can afford not to work. And damn those kids can get you sick, even without COVID-19. That’s part of why I have been avoiding elementary schools in favor of middle schools lately. I was on antibiotics for almost three weeks last year from two separate febrile illnesses I caught in schools. At least, I think I caught those illnesses in schools. Kids always have runny noses. They are always coughing. Cough. Cough. One boy got up a couple of weeks ago to avoid coughing on his classmates and coughed on his hand and my coat instead.

The sub pool is already shrinking. Those 87 vacancies represent clicks that never happened. My “favorite substitute” emails magnify this impression. I receive emails from the sub site titled “Preferred Substitute Alert,” electronic missives that mostly prove useless because I don’t check my mail often. The last couple of preferred sub openings waited for me, however.

I hate to write this. But if you are a regular teacher right now, I recommend you begin thinking about how you will manage without substitute teachers. In concrete terms, the odds that your planning periods will be stolen are going up fast. Be prepared to work without those periods as you cover for missing colleagues. Be prepared for longer evenings and weekends as grading time disappears. I’d simplify grading as much as possible, skewing toward single-grade group work for example.

And that friend who subs for you? Get that subbing set up if possible. If you don’t have any subs on your preferred list, I’d suggest taking time to talk to possible subs, collaring them in the teacher’s lounge or even your book club or grocery store. Get emails or phone numbers when possible. You may wish to advocate for yourself rather than waiting for the secretaries to make their way down the call list. As I said in my last post, I like to sleep in and I don’t take those calls.

I might sweeten the pot with a little chocolate, too. Or a thank-you note. Going the extra mile to make your substitute feel appreciated could simplify life greatly when you find you must be out of the classroom. While many subs may be going on sabbatical, others will not. You want to connect to those hardy souls. Even if the retirees begin to duck, I suspect the aspiring young teachers trying to make an employment connection will not.

Advocate for your district, too. Recruit new subs if possible. A few days ago, a friend of mine told me her district had plenty of openings. They had just begun eliminating preferred subs in hopes that by posting all possible jobs, they might get more subs to make that critical click, that “yes, I’ll cover your social studies classes on Friday.”

I imagine this post remains unnecessary for many readers, especially in the heartland. A colleague was complaining yesterday about all the required new procedures in her school, given that her state still did not have single confirmed COVID-19 case. My sympathy goes out to the confused people in states with no or almost no cases who are wondering where the toilet paper, paper towels, rubbing alcohol, bottled water, hand sanitizer and masks are going. (I am truly baffled by the run on water especially.) Regardless, I looked at those 87 jobs and thought it might be time to write this post.

Forewarned is forearmed.