Prediction: Subs Will Become an Endangered Species

Stick with me through these personal details. They lead directly to your classroom next year.

My husband broke his neck in a diving accident when he was seventeen. He’s charming, witty, has a couple of masters degrees, including an MBA from the University of Chicago, and he has managed the slow decline of age with determination. He is a living embodiment of the word grit. He talks too much about politics, but nobody’s perfect.

We’re at retirement age now. He requires help with his daily routines. We’ve been paying over $400 each month for a morning shot that we hope is helping his bone density. On Monday, I will take a wheelchair tire out to be fixed. The wheel’s no big problem. We have a few back-up wheelchairs. They accumulate over time. It can be harder to give away an old wheelchair than readers might expect, and each keeper has a function. One fits in the bathroom easily. Another relieves pressure on a certain area of his back. The new one makes trying to come to a stand easiest.

But this morning, as I was talking to my husband and putting on his support stockings, I realized I had neglected to write a vital post. We are so preoccupied right now with details and dangers of COVID-19 that issues of wages and salary have fallen off the table. I intend to put them back on the table right now.

I will not be subbing next year. I have subbed since I retired and I am a good sub. I follow the lesson plan. I teach the topic and often I can add fun details to the material I am given. I am certified to teach Spanish, French, general science for middle school, English for high school, business, social science, bilingual and ESL classes, not to mention my original teaching choice, high school mathematics. I did love school. I still do.

But here’s a fact that should be out front and center right now: In some districts, I make less as a substitute teacher than I would as a home health care worker. In others, it’s a wash. Between my spouse and my parents, I know a few home health care workers well. They are making about $14 – $17 per hour. If I sub for a half day, I make $50 to $62.50. Let’s say my commitment is from 8 AM to 12 PM which is pretty typical. That breaks down to $12.50 – $15.63 per hour. Subs typically do not receive benefits.

I would have to be out of my mind to work in a school next year.

Financially, subbing never made much sense. I could work a full day which would about pay for three hours of a home health care worker hired out of an agency. Local agencies get a little over $30 per hour, of which the health care aide typically is lucky to receive half. So I was working to pay for a likable, sturdy woman to help my husband into the shower and onto his exercise machine, among other tasks. The dishes got done. I had an enjoyable day with kids.

But the risk/reward profile of substitute teaching has changed dramatically.

I am older and in a couple of risk groups. Many subs are older. A substantial portion of the nation’s substitute teacher pool consists of men and women who are retired and take pleasure in interacting with kids in the classroom. It’s not about the pay. Teaching can be fun, and subs don’t have to spend the evening putting in grades. Subs also benefit from scheduling flexibility. They can work a half day or a full day, and can pick the classrooms they wish to occupy.

Only now subbing will be a high-risk job with subterranean pay and no benefits. I have always known that Starbucks would be at least as lucrative as subbing, and might include health and other benefits if I put in enough work hours, not to mention the perk of free coffee. Add in those benefits and suddenly Starbucks pays considerably better than substitute teaching. I simply did not want to be tied to a schedule prepared by someone else.

Starbucks would be SAFER now, though. I don’t plan to become a barista. I don’t need to work. If I did, I suspect I would fill out that Starbucks application. Or another application elsewhere. Because almost any job that does not involve standing on a line inspecting potatoes or cleaning meat would be safer than on-site teaching in parts of Texas or Florida right now. Driving for Amazon would allow me to make as much money and would probably be safer. Even making pizza and/or doing contactless delivery for Dominos Pizza might pay as much and would be safer. With tips, that pizza delivery might well pay better.

The problem of redeployment is about to change substitutes’ working conditions for the worse, too. That fact alone will shrink the sub pool.

Shortages of substitute teachers have become common is some areas. When that happens, school administrators take the subs they have and jury rig the day’s schedule to get subs to cover as many classes as possible, rescuing regular teachers who will otherwise lose their planning periods to take over for absent colleagues. I may become a missing kindergarten teacher as well as the reading resource teacher who had put me on her preferred substitute list. Under the original schedule, I had a break during that reading teacher’s planning period. Now all breaks have disappeared, as I take over for unknown teachers without subs. I may run into a problem many teachers know too well — oops, my bathroom break is gone! I may also have to work those classes that no sub wants, the ones we warn each other about. Redeployment has always been a risk of subbing, but as the pool shrinks and more teachers decide to stay out when even slightly sick, that risk will likely skyrocket. Regular teacher vacancies will go up, too. A regular teacher who would have gone to school with a low fever — I did more than once — will stay home now. As part of a better-safe-than-sorry strategy, teachers may even opt to stay home with mild new cases of the sniffles, just in case. As redeployment goes up, some of a district’s remaining subs are likely to drop out of the sub pool. The pizza parlor at least has a bathroom.

Eduhonesty: I am done. I am done until the vaccine arrives. I am about to become a retired retiree.

I knew that before this morning, but this morning the thought hit me that led to this post: I would be better off going to work for a home health care agency right now, at least if I stayed out of nursing homes and convalescent centers. I would be better off performing the job of my parents’ home health care aide. The range of jobs in home health care varies considerably, but giving my mom a shower and then doing her hair, helping her dress and making Costco salmon burger sandwiches for my dad does not sound unpleasant. I don’t mind light cleaning and vacuuming. The pay is about the same and I am only exposed to two elderly people who hardly ever leave home. Many part-time options exist.

Is there something wrong with the fact that these wonderful women who sometimes don’t’ even have a high school education are making the same amount of money as a woman with three degrees and useful classroom experience? I’m sure there’s a huge problem there. But it’s not my problem anymore. (Although I reserve the right to blog further about this absurdity.) My problem is what I want to do next year.

Currently, I plan to finish multiple jigsaw puzzles while listening to books or watching TV in the basement. I will also try to market two books on education I finished recently. I will blog and crochet. Maybe I will make a Tik Tok video soon just for fun.

But I won’t be risking those coughs and sneezes in the classroom. I won’t be wiping any little noses or sending older children to the nurse. I am grateful to the administrators who called me to thank me for my past help. I am grateful to the district that has been sending me cake, journals and other little presents. If I can help those districts from my home, I will do so. I would consider virtual subbing.

But I won’t be walking into any schools. Not this year. Not until there’s a vaccine. I am certain I am not alone. My schools are in an area that’s been in the red zone for weeks.

This post is a warning: Are you trying to decide whether to quit or retire? I’d factor this into my decision making process. Teachers in districts that already had sub shortages should prepare to cover for colleagues. Classes may also be broken up and their students dispersed throughout the school. Those extra students in your room will add to your risk, not to mention to the general confusion — and with all the new protocols, confusion will be high.

I believe the demand for substitute teachers is about to go up dramatically at a time when the supply collapses. This may help address the poor wages for substitutes, but those future pay raises won’t help regular teachers during the 2020-2021 school year.

Hugs to all my readers. Jocelyn

P.S. For any nonteacher readers who feel willing and able to enter those rooms of congested kids — and some kids seem to be congested all year long — I expect subbing jobs will be plentiful and administrations will be grateful to meet you. In some areas, the risk will be light. The rewards are many, even if they are not monetary in nature.